Thinking Twice About Profits, Currency and Opportunity Risk

• Markets may be focused on China’s devaluation, but I’m still paying attention to US profits.
• A commodity-driven earnings recession has plagued capital-heavy sectors like energy and materials.
• I think missing out on a renewed market advance could be the biggest risk for equity investors.

While the markets have been fixated recently on China’s currency moves, I have other things on my mind. I’ve been thinking that it has now been six years since the end of the last recession — making this expansion one year older than the average life span of business cycles after World War II. And for most of these six years, the United States has been on an impressive ride, both for company profits and the equity markets.

Our World After Greece

• As Greece moves out of the headlines, what does the rest of the world look like?
• Crude oil prices, still well off last year's highs, should be a boon to global growth.
• I expect this cycle to progress as revenues and profits at large multinationals gain traction.

For months now, the Greek debt repayment saga has been front-page news. At long last, an agreement has been reached between the country and its creditors. Efforts to meet the conditions of this bailout deal will play out over the next few days and weeks, with economic and political consequences in Greece and across Europe.

If the past is any guide, this issue will probably resurface again, reminding investors everywhere of the long-running battle between creditors and over-indebted governments. But until then, we can get back to the business of understanding the economic cycle.

No fooling

Those who say the Fed has inflated an equity bubble are not telling the whole story.
I see five reasons why the stock market’s five-year rise may not be due to easy money alone.
Higher profitability and the US economy’s ability to move forward on its own are also important.

I often hear about the connection between the bond-buying actions of the US Federal Reserve and the rise in stock prices. Indeed, the two do appear to have moved higher in tandem. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 200% since 2009, while the Fed has added trillions to its balance sheet to provide the US economy with extra liquidity to fuel growth and create jobs.

Ready to take flight

With US economic and earnings fundamentals suggesting that markets could turn upward again, Chief Investment Strategist James Swanson wonders if staying on the sidelines may be another risk.

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