Thinking Twice About Profits, Currency and Opportunity Risk

• Markets may be focused on China’s devaluation, but I’m still paying attention to US profits.
• A commodity-driven earnings recession has plagued capital-heavy sectors like energy and materials.
• I think missing out on a renewed market advance could be the biggest risk for equity investors.

While the markets have been fixated recently on China’s currency moves, I have other things on my mind. I’ve been thinking that it has now been six years since the end of the last recession — making this expansion one year older than the average life span of business cycles after World War II. And for most of these six years, the United States has been on an impressive ride, both for company profits and the equity markets.

Why Worry About China?

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Chief Investment Strategist James Swanson outlines his reasons for believing that China’s slowdown is not enough to subtract real economic growth from the rest of the world. Even the dramatic decline in Chinese equities and the potential bursting of the housing bubble may have a limited wealth effect on the population. Admittedly, faltering demand from China has put downward pressure on commodity prices, but this could actually have an upside.

Recorded August 5, 2015. For more market commentary from MFS, visit our YouTube channel.