US Consumer Riding High

• Economic slowing may be offset by its secondary effects — lower energy costs and interest rates.
• Facts about consumer behavior could justify optimism about US growth.
• US consumers alone represent the biggest economy in the world.

While I was traveling in Michigan and Minnesota last week, several things became apparent to me. Concerns about the economic slowdown in China and the rest of the world are real, but I also saw signs that these fears may be overpowered by a true sense of life improving in the United States.

Rocked Up and Down

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If corporate earnings flatten in the middle of the US expansion, we can chalk that up to global excess capacity and the strong dollar.         

After Waves of Weakness, Is World Recession Next

• Asian neighbors and commodity exporters were the first to feel the effect of China’s waning economy.
• The stronger US dollar and weaker global growth have had a second-order impact on US manufacturers.
• Lower energy prices may serve to accelerate consumer spending in the third wave after China’s slowdown.

China’s spectacular pace of economic expansion has ebbed, and the tides of this slowdown have washed over other countries and markets in a series of waves. Let’s consider the impacts for global growth and the US economy in particular.

Caution is the Byword

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Now that the Fed has decided to take no action, Jim Swanson considers what this means for the business cycle and the financial markets.

Watch the Data Flow Out of China

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After the recent episode of market turbulence, Chief Investment Strategist James Swanson considers whether China’s slowing growth — but not contraction — could be enough to derail the acceleration we’re seeing in the eurozone and the United States.