May 30, 2014

Three things to think about this spring



Chief Investment Strategist Jim Swanson reviews why equity and fixed income prices have been going up, while China’s moderating pace of growth is a concern but not an immediate threat to the global economic expansion.

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May 21, 2014

Business cycle matters



Perhaps the best approach to equity valuation is to gauge the business cycle.
Misunderstanding the cycle can lead to big market moves and investment mistakes.
Two measures may indicate if the current cycle is threatened or moving ahead.


As we have discussed, it’s important to consider equity market valuation in the context of the business cycle. Since World War II, there have been 10 recessions in the United States, all preceded by expansions leading to excesses that made the pace of growth unsustainable.

 

May 15, 2014

Too expensive to chase or too cheap to ignore?



No one wants to pay too much or miss a good opportunity.
Episodes of overvaluation are still fresh in people’s minds.
Many valuation measures are better than one or two.


There is probably nothing trickier than deciding if a stock or the market is overvalued or undervalued. The value inherent in the current price of the market or an individual stock is always in debate. Right now some say the market is a bubble, while others say that valuations are reasonable as long as the economy is still growing. Which point of view should we believe?

 

May 5, 2014

Why I like the tech sector



Chief Investment Strategist James Swanson highlights how the technology sector is in better shape today than in the late 1990s.

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