2012-12-28
Over the past months we have heard many warnings about the bond market — most say it is a bubble waiting to pop. But nothing happens. The world is still in love with bonds.
We have begun to view the warnings like those of the boy who cried wolf once too often. Investors, like the villagers of Aesop’s fable, have become inured to the cries. The inflation-linked bond markets seem complacent, and recent government inflation numbers have been tame.
How close are we to a bond cliff?
Over the past months we have heard many warnings about the bond market — most say it is a bubble waiting to pop. But nothing happens. The world is still in love with bonds.
We have begun to view the warnings like those of the boy who cried wolf once too often. Investors, like the villagers of Aesop’s fable, have become inured to the cries. The inflation-linked bond markets seem complacent, and recent government inflation numbers have been tame.
2012-12-21
Risk assets are likely to be in vogue in 2013 despite the myriad uncertainties that lie ahead. Problems in Europe have not gone away, but by mid-January it is likely that some of the questions about the US fiscal cliff will have been answered. Strategists like me, money managers and investors, however, will have plenty of other unknowns to confront in the year ahead.
The economies of the three largest contributors to global growth — the United States, the eurozone and China — will be the most closely watched, as will their effect on emerging market economies. Of course, global growth issues will shift back into focus only after US policymakers resolve their tax and spending debate. I expect that resolution to come in the first or second week of January. The eurozone seems to have escaped a banking crisis and euro collapse. The region, however, is still in recession. Additionally, we are now seeing signs of growth in China, where many had predicted the bursting of a bubble.
No easy answers in 2013
Risk assets are likely to be in vogue in 2013 despite the myriad uncertainties that lie ahead. Problems in Europe have not gone away, but by mid-January it is likely that some of the questions about the US fiscal cliff will have been answered. Strategists like me, money managers and investors, however, will have plenty of other unknowns to confront in the year ahead.
The economies of the three largest contributors to global growth — the United States, the eurozone and China — will be the most closely watched, as will their effect on emerging market economies. Of course, global growth issues will shift back into focus only after US policymakers resolve their tax and spending debate. I expect that resolution to come in the first or second week of January. The eurozone seems to have escaped a banking crisis and euro collapse. The region, however, is still in recession. Additionally, we are now seeing signs of growth in China, where many had predicted the bursting of a bubble.
2012-12-18
Two weeks ago, I traveled to the Middle East. My arrival in Dubai proved to be a dizzying experience. There I was greeted with a whirlwind of attention, confusing actions and bewildering sights. The pace was fast and the protocol unfamiliar. One bellhop would take one bag, while another would take the second. At the front desk, one clerk would take my passport, while another asked for my credit card, and behind me waiters offered tea as taxi drivers vied for my business. This is the most vulnerable time for many a traveler as confusion reigns and questions fly. Mistakes can be made, documents misplaced, currency lost and people inadvertently insulted.
Simple rules for the dazed and confused
Two weeks ago, I traveled to the Middle East. My arrival in Dubai proved to be a dizzying experience. There I was greeted with a whirlwind of attention, confusing actions and bewildering sights. The pace was fast and the protocol unfamiliar. One bellhop would take one bag, while another would take the second. At the front desk, one clerk would take my passport, while another asked for my credit card, and behind me waiters offered tea as taxi drivers vied for my business. This is the most vulnerable time for many a traveler as confusion reigns and questions fly. Mistakes can be made, documents misplaced, currency lost and people inadvertently insulted.
2012-12-13
I typically study five areas of the US economy to find clues to the future direction of corporate profits and the economy in general. These are the five key fundamental building blocks I have used to construct my view over the last few years. Using these tools has helped me to weed out the politics and rhetoric from the basics of the business cycle. Here's a fresh look at where we are now.
Swanson's Scorecard
I typically study five areas of the US economy to find clues to the future direction of corporate profits and the economy in general. These are the five key fundamental building blocks I have used to construct my view over the last few years. Using these tools has helped me to weed out the politics and rhetoric from the basics of the business cycle. Here's a fresh look at where we are now.
2012-12-06
Arriving in Kuwait, I could see immediately that this is a society in a state of rapid transition. Fast, fancy cars sped around the flyovers. Jets roared overhead. Modern malls — making those in the United States look dated — sprang from the desert sands. Only the minarets of newly constructed mosques dotting the horizon served as a reminder that I was traveling in the Middle East.
Kuwait is a democratic country with a small population and large foreign exchange reserves generated from the sale of oil and hydrocarbons. But this Persian Gulf country, so long dependent on the proceeds of its oil exports, is now in the process of diversifying its economy to help create a better economic base that will support a growing middle class.
Back to the future
Arriving in Kuwait, I could see immediately that this is a society in a state of rapid transition. Fast, fancy cars sped around the flyovers. Jets roared overhead. Modern malls — making those in the United States look dated — sprang from the desert sands. Only the minarets of newly constructed mosques dotting the horizon served as a reminder that I was traveling in the Middle East.
Kuwait is a democratic country with a small population and large foreign exchange reserves generated from the sale of oil and hydrocarbons. But this Persian Gulf country, so long dependent on the proceeds of its oil exports, is now in the process of diversifying its economy to help create a better economic base that will support a growing middle class.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)