2012-06-29
I thought Americans had a dire view of the state of the global economy. However, when I crossed the Atlantic this week, I found that the people in the United Kingdom were even more full of gloom and doom.
I can't say I didn't expect this, but I didn't think the mood would be quite so bad.
In all my meetings with economists in the country, I learned they were ratcheting down their growth expectations for the for the country and the region, while incrementally upping the possibility that Greece would exit the union, that the eurozone would fall into recession, and ultimately dissolve.
United they stand
I thought Americans had a dire view of the state of the global economy. However, when I crossed the Atlantic this week, I found that the people in the United Kingdom were even more full of gloom and doom.
I can't say I didn't expect this, but I didn't think the mood would be quite so bad.
In all my meetings with economists in the country, I learned they were ratcheting down their growth expectations for the for the country and the region, while incrementally upping the possibility that Greece would exit the union, that the eurozone would fall into recession, and ultimately dissolve.
2012-06-18
Germany and the German voters may not wish to think of themselves as the lender of last resort or as the final key to the current eurozone dilemma. But, that may be the reality of today's world.
Much is made of the anger of the German worker. We have heard the stories of this worker going to work in a snow-covered auto factory at age 60 while his Greek counterpart, 10 years younger, is fully retired, living off a government pension, and relaxing by the Mediterranean. This dichotomy is pointed out on an almost daily basis in the European press. Photos depict this dilemma of North vs. South. And no doubt anger boils in the Northland.
But the reality may be very different. With a German national election less than a year away, that reality may become apparent.
A win-win option for Germany
Germany and the German voters may not wish to think of themselves as the lender of last resort or as the final key to the current eurozone dilemma. But, that may be the reality of today's world.
Much is made of the anger of the German worker. We have heard the stories of this worker going to work in a snow-covered auto factory at age 60 while his Greek counterpart, 10 years younger, is fully retired, living off a government pension, and relaxing by the Mediterranean. This dichotomy is pointed out on an almost daily basis in the European press. Photos depict this dilemma of North vs. South. And no doubt anger boils in the Northland.
But the reality may be very different. With a German national election less than a year away, that reality may become apparent.
2012-06-11
For years now, Americans have been pulling their money from equities. And now the media seem to be tolling the death knell of stock investing.
Really, though, it's not that surprising. In the past decade we have seen two waterfall declines of stock prices. The global recession has hit the banking sector hard, and a persistent rise in bond prices has lured investors away from equities. These occurrences alone would likely have been enough to discourage even the most steadfast fundamental investor. But the investment climate deteriorated even more. Stock investors saw a rise in price volatility and thinning participation. Then, there was the flash crash and a rise in correlations among stock pairs and sectors, all but defeating at times the work of asset allocators and stockpickers.
Rally Redux?
For years now, Americans have been pulling their money from equities. And now the media seem to be tolling the death knell of stock investing.
Really, though, it's not that surprising. In the past decade we have seen two waterfall declines of stock prices. The global recession has hit the banking sector hard, and a persistent rise in bond prices has lured investors away from equities. These occurrences alone would likely have been enough to discourage even the most steadfast fundamental investor. But the investment climate deteriorated even more. Stock investors saw a rise in price volatility and thinning participation. Then, there was the flash crash and a rise in correlations among stock pairs and sectors, all but defeating at times the work of asset allocators and stockpickers.
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